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Turnbull Stakes Day Preview – Race-by-race guide to Sunday's Turnbull Stakes Day at Flemington

  • Race-by-race guide to Turnbull Stakes Day
Turnbull Stakes Day at Flemington Racecourse

With the AFL Grand Final taking centre stage on Saturday, Turnbull Stakes Day at Flemington finds itself on a Sunday for the second time in five years. 

Watch all of the action from Turnbull Stakes Day streamed live via Crownbet, Sportsbet and Ladbrokes.

    

Tim Guille take a look at a quality day of Group racing. 

Race 3 - Gilgai Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3yo+)

Fast Facts:

  • First run in 1984 – Registered as Baguette Stakes (champion 2yo)
  • Named changed in 2000 - after Victorian stud farm (Black Caviar’s birthplace)

History Tells Us: 

  • Pays to be fresh – seven of last 10 winners were ‘1st or 2nd up’
  • 10 of last 12 winners were male
  • Seven of last nine winners were priced $8.50 or under
  • Odd Stat – Number 9 has only won the race once

2015 Overview:

Often called the ‘world’s best sprinter’, Chautauqua will be clear favourite and hard to beat. He won easily at Moonee Valley recently and will only get better over 1200m. Only dangers (if any!!) include recent Group 2 Flemington winner, Churchill Dancer, Knoydart, Group 1 runner-up Charlie Boy and Delectation

Race 5 - Edward Manifold Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, 3yo, Fillies)

Fast Facts: 
  • First run in 1932 - Group 2 since 1979
  • Named after VRC Committeeman
  • Spring ‘shaping’ race - Seven of last 30 winners won 1000 Guineas, while four of last 10 Oaks winners came from this race 

History Tells Us: 

  • 10 of last 13 winners have been ‘4th up’
  • Look for value - last 10 winners weren’t favourite (average price $10.50)
  • Odd stats – five of last six winners had two word names and numbers 11 – 14 haven’t won in over 30 years

2015 Overview:

Don’t Doubt Mamma won strongly last start and has been running well against quality horses – she should continue to improve. Sacred Eye smashed her rivals on debut at Geelong, then lost narrowly to Don’t Doubt Mamma - so is up to this. Badawiya didn’t have much luck at Listed level, two starts ago, but then won her maiden very well last start. Bengal Cat showed promise in her 2yo Autumn campaign and will run well first up. Sailing By was tough against the boys last start and will appreciate coming back to a fillies race. Lightly raced Thames Court came 3rd in Sacred Eye/Don’t Tell Mamma race - she could improve sharply. Gun 2yo My Poppette has been running well and will be suited by extra distance. If you are looking for value, Dulverton won her maiden in exceptional fashion over this distance and has in-from Dwayne Dunn on board - a sneaky chance in a wide-open race. 

Race 6 - The Bart Cummings (Group 3, 2520m, Quality HCP)

Fast Facts: 

  • First run in 1984 – name changed in 2004 to honour a man that needs no introduction 
  • Elevated to Group 3 in 2014
  • Willy Wonka race - winner gets a ‘golden ticket’ into the Melbourne Cup 

History Tells Us: 

  • Fitness is key – last eight winners were either 3rd, 4th or 5th up
  • Horses stepping up in distance perform best – last eight winners have done so
  • Last 7 winners carried 55.5kgs or more
  • Odd stat – four of last five winners have been overseas horses that moved to Australia

2015 Overview:

Foundry stepped up a notch last start in Group company placing third, and should improve ‘3rd up’. Is a strong contender in this field. Our Ivanhowe ground away in his ‘1st up’ run at Caulfield recently and has won at Group 1 level over this distance before (Germany) so may be a player. Bold Sniper found the line really well in his last two starts and looks like he will appreciate distance now (has won twice at 2400m). At First Sight (emergency) stays in this distance range but has run on well in his last two starts, including recent 2500m Flemington 4th placing. Lloyd Williams ex-English horse, Wexford Town, has had 3 mixed results since coming to Australia. He loves to lead and won well last start in Adelaide so might surprise. Tommy Berry comes down to Melbourne to ride Kapour. Another front runner, he will be setting the pace, but will be hoping for rain. Let’s Make a Deal is 3rd up and showed plenty of improvement when stepping up in distance last start. If you are looking for value, Crafty Cruiser drops 5.5kgs since his last start and loves Flemington. He was a close 2nd at odds last start over this distance and may cause an upset. De Little Engine will be more revved second up. Prior to his last start he hadn’t placed outside of the top 4 in 12 months of racing (10 starts) and gets up to his preferred distance.

Race 7 - Turnbull Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, WFA no age/sex restriction)

Fast Facts: 

  • First held in 1865 - known as Royal Park Stakes
  • Name changed in 1948 to honour VRC Chairman
  • Group 1 from 2010 (Group 1 at times in last 10 years)

History Tells Us: 

  • Only one winner has been ‘2nd up’ in last 30 years and 11 of last 18 winners were ‘4th up’
  • Onwards to glory – four of last six Caulfield Cup winners came from this race
  • Males have won 10 of last 13
  • 75% of last eight winners paid above $8 (average price $13)
  • Odd stat – last four winners had two word names

2015 Overview:

Alpine Eagle was trapped wide last start on this track at Group 1 level, but hit the line well and will relish 2000m. After shaking the perennial ‘bridesmaid’ tag with her August Group 2 victory, Royal Descent will be out to break the male stranglehold. She gets to a preferable distance and may run well. Rising Romance has looked strong in her first two starts after her ‘spell’. The 2014 Caulfield Cup runner up has performed well over 2000m. Hartnell had a stellar Autumn and a solid 4th ‘1st up’ in Sydney. A recent trial winner, he may be an improver here. Amralah won in Adelaide strongly last start and may have finally settled into Australian racing. Happy Trails is carrying a big weight but has been running well and will be in the mix. Other chances may include NZ star Volkstok’n’barell who showed some improvement last start, Caulfield Cup runner-up Dandino, 2014 Derby winner Preferment and Group 1 winner Weary. If you are looking for value, Extra Zero nearly won the 2000m Group 1 Australian Cup here in Autumn. He loves Flemington and steps up to a distance he prefers, while Oaks winner Set Square has looked sound over shorter distances in her first two runs after her winter spell.

Race 8 - Blazer Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 4yo+, Mares)

Fast Facts: 

  • Began in 1989 - was known as Rose of Kingston Stakes until name change in 2010
  • Group 2 since 2005
  • Traditional mares race - leads to Tristarc (Caulfield Cup) then Myer Classic (Derby Day)

History Tells Us: 

  • 75% of last 17 winners were ‘3rd or 4th ‘up’ - only one winner was ‘1st
  • Favourites have only won 40% of last 12 races – average price $8.50
  • 85% of the winners since 1989 have been either 4yo or 5yo
  • Odd stats – the last seven winners have had the letter ‘e’ in their name and number 1 has won 25% of all races

2015 Overview:

Atlantis Dream, Group 2 placed in Autumn, hit the line nicely ‘1st up’ and will appreciate extra distance. Jessy Belle never seems to run a bad race over 1400m at Flemington and wasn’t far off winning in the Atlantic Dream race. Lightly raced, Satya also out of the same race, looks like she will improve over longer distance Group 3 winner, Madam Gangster, looked sound winning ‘1st up’ race in similar company, but was poor in her last start. She may improve. Other chances include Group 2 winner Hazard and front runner Tycoon Tara. If you are looking for value, Girl in Flight has been thereabouts in this level for 12 months and has run well ‘fresh’ before.

Other races and horses to watch:

Race 1 (2yo - Listed Maribyrnong Plate) 

For the first time this season, the ‘babies’ step onto the track. Calliope will have her admirers after a strong trial win. Chasing her will be South Australian colt, Manuel, who also won his trial nicely. Others that have trialled well include Rylea Lass and Sweet Sherry. 

Race 2 (Listed Poseidon Stakes)

Faatinah won his debut race well and then placed 2nd behind smart horses last start and could improve. South Australian visitor, One for One, has never missed a placing in his five starts and placed at listed level last start. Top me Up placed 2nd at Group level recently before heading to Geelong to easily break his maiden status. Other chances include Mr Optimistic, Well Sighted and Stoker. 

Race 4 (Listed UCI Stakes)

Wide-open race - many aiming en route to Derby. Tivachi won his first start, in a weaker grade nicely, before placing a close 2nd behind Badawiya (R6 starter) last start and should go well. Etymology caught the eye flashing home last start and will appreciate the extra distance. Celtic Tiger has come out of strong form races, while Kentucky Flyer carried 60kgms last start but still found the line well. Iron Boss, Extra Choice and Alkaashef are value runners in a tough race. 

Race 9 (Listed Paris Lane Stakes)

Lord Aspen has built up a strong record, winning five of six starts. The South Australian has won at Flemington before (1400m Listed race) and looks well placed here. Ulmann flew home over 1200m last start and will be suited by 1400m. Other chances include Group placed QLD horse Worthy Cause, Setinum who is dropping in grade, Yesterday’s Song, Chivalry and Good Value. ‘up’ since 1989.


NSW BOOKIES Australia 

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Turnbull Stakes Day Preview – Race-by-race guide to Sunday's Turnbull Stakes Day at Flemington

Tim Guille steers us through the Turnbull Stakes Day program with an essential guide to Flemington on Sunday.

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