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Who will win the 2015 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington?

  • The average price of horses to win the Turnbull Stakes since 2000 is $10
  • Six-year-olds and four-year-olds have dominated the race in recent years. 
  • Lloyd Williams owned horses have won three of the past six Turnbull Stakes
Lucia Valentina claimed the Turnbull Stakes in 2014

The Group 1 Turnbull Stakes is traditionally a classic lead up race to the spring majors and boasts an impressive honour roll including champions Makybe Diva (2005), Northerly (2002) and Sunline (2001). 

Watch the Turnbull Stakes streamed live online at Crownbet, Ladbrokes or Sportsbet.

    

The Turnbull is run over the 2000m at Flemington and carries prizemoney of $500,000. 

Looking at the history of the Turnbull Stakes since the year 2000, we see that is has generally been a good race for punters with six favourites saluting in that time. Green Moon (2012) at $4 and December Draw (2011) at $2.10 are the most recent popular elects to win the event. 

Last year’s winner Lucia Valentina started at $8.50 while Happy Trails saluted at $26 in 2013. Happy Trails, along with Efficient in 2009 at $26 are the highest priced winners since 2000. The average price of the winners has been $10. 

In what is an open race this year, Alpine Eagle and Royal Descent share favouritism in early markets at $5.50, while Hartnell and Amralah are both single figure odds. 

The 2000m start at Flemington gives ample time for gallopers to find a position in running and winners have come from a variety of barriers. Gate 8 has been the most successful since 2000 with Green Moon, Efficient and Devil Moon (2007) all jumping from there whilst Barriers 2, 4 and 5 have also had multiple winners. 

This year, Volkstok’n’barrell jumps from 8 while Protectionist, Who Shot Thebarman and Gust Of Wind have drawn 2,4 and 5 respectively. 
An interesting statistic is the domination of older horses in the event. Six-year-olds have accounted for seven of the winners since 2000, although four-year-olds have won six times since 2000. Of the favoured runners, Alpine Eagle is four, Hartnell is five while both Royal Descent and Amralah are six. 

Four mares have won the race since 2000 including champion gallopers Sunline and Makybe Diva as well as Devil Moon and Lucia Valentina. Rising Romance, Royal Descent, Gust Of Wind and Set Square are the four mares in this year’s race. 

The most successful trainers since 2000 have been Robert Hickmott, Mark Kavanagh and Lee Freedman with two wins apiece. 
Robert Hickmott trained Green Moon and Zipping (2010) to victory and saddles up Amralah this year. The owner of those horses, Lloyd Williams, also had victory in the event with Efficient in 2009 when John Sadler was the stable trainer. 

Mark Kavanagh won the event with December Draw and Devil Moon and will be looking to make it three wins in the Turnbull this year with an outsider, Magicool. 

Successful jockeys in the race include Greg Childs, Steven King and Nick Hall who have all ridden two winners since 2000, however, that trio will not be riding in this year’s Turnbull. 

Finally, the key lead up race to the Turnbull is the Underwood Stakes (1800m), which has provided six winners to have come out of that race at their last start. 

Selections based on trends: 
Amralah ($7.50 William Hill)
Best Roughie: Gust Of Wind ($34 Sportsbet)



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2015 Turnbull Stakes

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